Monatsarchiv für December 2008

 
 

Links: Risk Intelligence Vendors Review: 2008

You can get the big picture viewing different sources(REMEMBER: A vendor’s research methodology is as important as its rating):

Chartis RiskTech 100 (October 2008)

FinTech100(2008)
FinTech100(2008): Top 25 Enterprise Companies
FinTech100(2008): Banking Top 10
FinTech100(2008): Capital Market Top 10
FinTech100(2008): Insurance Top 10
Celnet Credit Risk/Basel II Vendors(2008):

Links–BI Industry 2008: Review and Prospect

/*Thanks the hints supplied by:

A look back at 2008 and some crystal ball predictions…, byTammi Kay Geroge, from SASBlog*/

Major Data Warehousing Events of 2008 (and Predictions for 2009), by Michael Schiff, from TDWI,

Major Data Warehousing Events of 2008:

  • Everyone had an appliance story
  • Industry consolidations continued
  • The recessionary environment encourage further BI developments
  • Open source grew

Predictions for 2009:

  • Further industry consolidation(Informatica by HP, SPSS by SAP)
  • Cloud computing will come down to earth
  • Open source growth will accelerate
  • The IT world will become greener
  • Major emphasis on solutions rather than tools and technology

BusinessIntelligence Tools: Year in Review,by Cindi Howson, from BeyeNetwork

Top Virtualization Trends for 2009, by John Suit, from ZDNet

Surround the Warehouse: Prediction for 2009 , by Neil Raden, from IntelligentEnterprise

Industry Review: SAS and Teradata Partnership

SAS and Teradata Partnership: Press

  1. Leading Companies See Value in SAS and Teradata Partnership
  2. SAS and Teradata Unveil Advantage Program to Bring Powerful In-Database Solutions and Services to Customers
  3. SAS and Teradata Enter into Strategic Partnership


In BI industry, the pure players such as SAS, Teradata and Microstrategy, need to demonstrate their indispensable values against the megavendors, IBM (acquired Cognos), SAP (acquired Business Object), Oracle (acquired Hyperion) and Microsoft. Teradata is solely focused on enterprise data warehouse. SAS, dominating in business analytics (e.g. advanced statistics and data mining), will check and balance the BI industry due to the private-hold structure. SAS and Teradata Advantage Program partnership, includes wide business lines, such as Analytics, AML (Anti-Money Laundering), Credit Risk, Enterprise Intelligence and Optimization Services. I think It’s a effective way to learn from each other in mutual emulation and counterbalance the concentration market.

Santa and SAS Again: Santa’s Dashboard

santaDashBoard

(santaDashBoard.png, With permission by Mr. Robert Allison)

Merry Christmas again. SAS marketing staff started up an interesting Christmas campaign on how Santa operates his workshop. Here is another wonderful work about Santa’s Dashboard, created by SAS senior R&D staff, Robert Allison.

Robert is a master of graphics and visualization. You can view his SAS/Graph examples in the following link:

http://robslink.com/SAS/Home.htm

The Making of an Analyst: A Supplement to What Makes a Good Business Analyst

I once commented the entry, What Makes a Good Business Analyst by Rajan Chandras, with an easy tone, If You Can Make it Here, You Can Make it Anywhere. The standards of a good analyst conclude by Rajan, in my opinion, are somewhat of very high bars.

In the recent SASCOM Magazine, Ted Cuzzillo published a relatively moderate enty, say, The Making of An Analyst. This paper is considered the fresh graduates to be an analysts in their first job hunting. Yes, there two posts are more compatible than oppositive. Rajan’s targets are those veteran analysts with years of experience.

Learn Time Series Analysis: Free Materials for SAS Users

0. A gentle Introduction to Time Series Analysis, may serve as fast learning materials:
1. An open source book(with data and code), A First Course on Time Series Analysis: examples with SAS, by Prof. Michael Falk, is available in:
2. A SAS User book, Forecasting Examples for Business and Economics Using SAS by B. Cohen (another popular SAS User book for time series is SAS for Forecasting Time Series by John Brocklebank and David Dickey), is example-driven approach. You can review and submit the codes to learn SAS for time series analysis in a comprehensive way–there are 30 examples available:

1. Forecasting an Autoregressive Progress
2. Forecasting a Moving Average Process
3. Forecasting a Seasonal Process
4. Seasonal Adjustment and Forecasting
5. Forecasting with Transfer Function Models
6. Forecasting with Intervention Models
7. Forecasting Multivariate Time Series
8. Preparing Time Series Data for Forecasting
9. Using Macros for Forecasting Tasks
10. Fitting and Forecasting a Linear Model by OLS
11. Testing Forecasting Models for Break Points with Chow Tests
12. Fitting and Forecasting Linear Models with Linear Restrictions
13. Fitting and Forecasting a Linear Model with an AR Error Correction
14. Fitting Linear Models with Heteroscedastic Error Terms
15. Fitting Linear Models with ARCH-GARCH Error Terms
16. Assessing Forecast Accuracy
17. Forecasting Using a Lagged Dependent Variable Model
18. Static and Dynamic Forecasting Using a Lagged Dependent Variable Model
19. Fitting and Forecasting Polynomial Distributed Lag Models
20. Fitting and Forecasting Restricted Polynomial Distributed Lag Models
21. Fitting and Forecasting a Linear System by SUR and ITSUR
22. Testing and Restricting Parameter Estimates in a Linear System Forecast
23. Producing Goodness-of-Fit Statistics for Forecasts of a Linear System o
24. Fitting a Linear System by Instrumental Methods
25. Linear System Diagnostics and Autoregressive Error Correction
26. Creating Forecast confidence Limits with Monte Carlo Simulation
27. Fitting and Forecasting a Nonlinear Model
28. Restricting and Testing Parameters of a Nonlinear Forecasting Model
29. Producing Forecasts Automatically Using the Time Series Forecasting Sys
30. Developing Forecasting Models Using the Time Series Forecasting System

You can get the code with data and proc steps in SAS website:
3. SAS/ETS User’s Guide and Procedure Guide in SAS Product Documentation:

Links of 2008-12-16: Financial Engineering, Ponzi Scheme, SAS PC Game

  1. The State of Financial Engineering
  2. Ponzi Scheme Returns: SEC Charges Bernard L. Madoff for Multi-Billion Dollar Ponzi Scheme
  3. WolfenSAS: A PC Game written by SAS Code

Delivers the Right Toys and Goodies to the Right Boys and Girls: Story of Santa and SAS

How to know the boys and girls’ real demands around the world? and how to predict their demands in next Christmas?

How to purchase toys and goodies with a balance of costs and profits? and how to deliver them more efficiently?

There are lots of questions in the list of Santa, CEO of Santa’s Workshop. SAS’s marketing staff held a very creative champion for the coming Christmas. You can watch the interview with Santa in youtube.com, or read the success story about Santa, Santa’s Secret: Magic? No. It’s SAS(R) Business Analytics.

Merry Christmas.

If You Can Make it Here, You Can Make it Anywhere: On What Makes a Good Business Analyst by Rajan Chandras

In the latest post, What Makes a Good Business Analyst?, Rajan Chandras cites some soft items from Forrester’s Business Analyst Assessment Workbook:

  • Ability to think abstractly, identify patterns, and generate ideas and solutions
  • Understanding of when and how to escalate issues or needs
  • Understanding of and ability to delivery the appropriate level of detail needed for each task
  • Interest in exploring and understanding new concepts and topic areas
  • Emotionally invested in the work
  • Ability to learn by shadowing stakeholders
  • Ability to clearly articulate technology in terms stakeholders can understand
  • Understanding of the organizational culture and its impact on processes and projects (this one seems obvious, but the latter phrase is more profound than might seem at first glance)
  • Ability to drive a decision analysis and selection process
  • Ability to recognize patterns in requirements and categorize them appropriately

What’s more, there are some suggestions by Rajan Chandras himself:

  • Know the organization’s external environment: its competitive position, current state of the industry, geographical & social factors, etc.
  • Know the organization’s internal environment: its financial position, organization culture, IT maturity, etc.
  • Adapt to the needs (your language, dress etc.), but be yourself. Imperfect, yet genuine, is fine; falsity comes through easily, and will destroy your credibility in no time.

No doubt, no boss can reject such a perfect analyst. But I’m afraid these standards are suitable for every professionals. That is to say, they create a model to explain everything. It is too universal to be served as a good filter to select the most proper analysts. She or he may more marketable in any other business line.

Data Mining in Stock Market

Data Mining in Stock Market? Is it crazy? or is it just a hopeless try? Every mentor in mathematics and finance educates us that the stock market is too chaotic and sentimental to use mathematical models. Most of all gift rock scientists are concentrated in the study of interest of rates and fixed income securities. It sounds profitable to use mathematical and statistical models to predict the price of stock, but there are little successfull stories.

I know I might hold some academic doctrines, so I have interest to monitor any effort to try to forecast stock prices using data mining techniques. Some links from a popular data mining blog , Data Mining Research, are listed as follows: